ABSTRACT
Andrei ZhukovAndrei.Zhukov@sidc.be
Royal Observatory of Belgium
| Title : | Constraining CMEs and Shocks by Observations and Modelling throughout the inner heliosphere |
| Abstract | |
| Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) play the main role in creating disturbed space weather conditions by driving geomagnetic storms. Studies of CMEs and associated shock waves,in particular of their initiation and propagation, are therefore a key topic in solar physics and space weather research. Although in recent years a significant progress was made in improving the accuracy of predicting arrival of the CMEs and associated shocks, the errors of prediction are still rather large (of the order of 10 hours). Prediction of the geoeffective southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field is still difficult. The evolution of a CME on the way from the Sun to the Earth depends on a number of factors, including the CME-CME interaction and interaction of the CME with the background solar wind (e.g. deceleration/acceleration, deformation, erosion, shock wave formation). The resulting structure at 1 AU may include the ICME (interplanetary CME), the shock driven by the ICME, and the sheath region between them. Since our current knowledge on the CME-ICME structure is rather poorly constrained by observations, we need to rely on models, which are presently not realistic enough to predict the geoeffective magnetic field configuration of ICMEs. In the framework of a new international project CCSOM (Constraining CMEs and Shocks by Observations and Modelling throughout the inner heliosphere) led by the Royal Observatory of Belgium, we study propagation of CMEs by combining observations with numerical simulations by the EUHFORIA model (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset), which was recently developed at the KU Leuven and the University of Helsinki. This allows us to model the CME and the CMEdriven shock wave in realistic background solar wind conditions, to improve the prediction of their arrival at the Earth, and to test the predictions of the magnetic configuration of ICMEs. |
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