D-day 0 C O N T A C T S
Jinhye Park
Kyung Hee University

Title : Forecast of Solar Energetic Particles Depending on CME 3D Parameters Using Multiple Spacecraft
For the forecast of solar energetic particles (SEPs), we study the relationships between the peak fluxes of 18 SEP events and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) 3D parameters (speed, angular width and separation angle) obtained from SOHO, STEREO-A and/or B for the period from 2010 August to 2013 June. We apply the STEREO CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) to the SEP-associated CMEs to obtain 3D speeds and 3D angular widths. The separation angles are determined as the longitudinal angle between flaring regions and magnetic footpoints of the spacecraft, which are calculated by the assumption of Parker spiral field. The main results are as follows.

1) We find the dependence of the SEP peak fluxes on CME 3D speed and 3D angular width from multi-spacecraft.
2) There is a noticeable anti-correlation (r=-0.62) between SEP peak flux and separation angle.
3) We predict the SEP peak fluxes using a multiple regression method considering longitudinal separation angle, CME 3D speed and 3D angular width. It shows that the separation angle is the most important parameter, and the CME 3D speed is secondary on SEP peak flux.


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